Condemnation and regret are due for the horrific terrorist attack that occurred in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, which claimed the lives of innocent individuals in the most brutal manner. The attack serves as a significant escalation in Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir, marking a shift in focus from the south of the Pir Panjal (Rajouri-Poonch) back to the Valley, indicating a tactical adjustment by Pakistan’s ISI and its affiliated terror groups.
The timing of the attack was strategically significant, taking place during a potential tourist season, G20 legacies, and recent political outreach efforts in J&K, all of which threatened Pakistan’s relevance in the evolving Kashmir narrative. This event held immense strategic symbolism.
Pakistan’s strategic intent was likely to rekindle terrorism and revive the dwindling separatist sentiment in the Valley, disrupting the socio-economic normalization and democratic engagement that the Government of India has been promoting. Reasserting its relevance in the Kashmir discourse, amidst India’s diplomatic gains in the Global South, may have been a key motivation for this move.
Another objective was to destabilize India’s peace-building efforts, particularly after the successful Assembly elections in J&K. It is believed that Pakistan’s growing internal discontent, including Baloch unrest, TTP attacks, and economic crises, may have also driven the regime to control domestic narratives through external aggression.
However, the most heinous aspect of the attack was the deliberate targeting of Hindu male tourists, a calculated attempt to ignite communal sentiment within India. It is plausible that instructions to this effect were likely passed down to the terrorists to be followed implicitly.
Some have questioned whether there was a link or similarity between this attack and the 7 October 2023 Hamas assault on a peaceful gathering near the Gaza-Israel border, which left 1,200 innocents dead and 250 taken hostage, thus triggering the ongoing Gaza conflict. While I do not believe there was a transnational joint intent here, the Pahalgam attack shared several similarities.
From India’s strategic security perspective, it is crucial to restore public confidence and ensure there is no repetition of such attacks, particularly in high-footfall areas. The strategic objective must be to retain and strengthen control over the narrative of stability and development in Kashmir.
India’s diplomacy must ensure that Pakistan’s claims receive no international traction, project complete resilience, and prepare for a measured response or retaliation, fully mindful of its future implications.
The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has taken several measures, with the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 being a bold one. While India has not revoked the treaty, it has been suspended pending a change in Pakistan’s attitude towards Indian demands. The waters of the three western rivers of the Indus system – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – are meant for Pakistan’s exclusive use. However, the impact on Pakistan remains uncertain.
In the interim, a strong and vigilant posture must be maintained in J&K to deny Pakistan any further inroads, especially with the limited number of terrorists currently operating there. During this period, enhanced troop presence and proactive counter-terror operations in the Valley must continue, with greater coordination under the Unified Command system.
Reviving the global narrative around Pakistan’s support for terrorism must be a strategic priority. Leveraging platforms like the FATF, countering Pakistani narratives at international think tanks, and upgrading surveillance, fencing, and drone-based monitoring along the LoC must be pursued with renewed vigour.
Key socio-economic schemes in Kashmir must be accelerated to deny terrorists the conditions to regenerate a fertile recruitment ground. Controlling public panic, avoiding communal fallout, and projecting a firm yet responsible national response are paramount. The media – both national and local – will play a critical role.
This may also be an appropriate moment to turn our focus to border communities and others affected by conflict. Their role is crucial in our shared fight against terrorism. India can reaffirm its image as a responsible power by striking the right balance between firmness and restraint.
(The author is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority, Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
