Pakistan’s Minister of Power, Awais Leghari, has responded to India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, labeling it as “cowardly.” According to a report by Dawn, Leghari stated, “India’s hasty suspension of the IWT is an act of water warfare; a cowardly, unlawful move.”
Leghari further asserted, “Every drop is our right, and we will defend it with full might — legally, politically, and internationally.” Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, also voiced his disapproval, calling India’s actions “inappropriate.” He commented, “Expressing anger without evidence is inappropriate.”
In response to India’s announcement on Wednesday that the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 would be temporarily halted until Pakistan renounces its support for cross-border terrorism, there are numerous potential implications. The Indus river system consists of the primary river, the Indus, along with its five left-bank tributaries: the Ravi, the Beas, the Sutlej, the Jhelum, and the Chenab. The right-bank tributary, the Kabul, does not flow through India.
The Ravi, the Beas, and the Sutlej are collectively known as the Eastern rivers, while the Chenab, the Jhelum, and the Indus main are referred to as the Western rivers. Both countries rely heavily on these waters. Pradeep Kumar Saxena, who served as India’s Indus Water Commissioner for over six years and has extensive experience with the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), stated that as an upper riparian country, India has various options.
Saxena told PTI, “This could mark the beginning of the abrogation of the Treaty, if the government decides to do so.” He added that although there is no explicit provision for the abrogation of the treaty, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of Treaties provides adequate grounds under which the treaty can be repudiated in light of a significant change in circumstances since the treaty’s signing.
Last year, India sent a formal request to Pakistan, seeking a review and modification of the treaty. Outlining the possible actions India could take, Saxena explained that in the absence of the treaty, India would no longer be obligated to adhere to the restrictions on the “reservoir flushing” of the Kishanganga reservoir and other projects on Western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indus Water Treaty currently prohibits this. Flushing can help India remove sediment from its reservoir, but filling the entire reservoir could take several days. Under the treaty, reservoir filling after flushing must be done during the peak monsoon season—August—but with the treaty in abeyance, it could be done at any time.
Performing this action during Pakistan’s sowing season could be detrimental, especially since a large part of Punjab in Pakistan depends on the Indus and its tributaries for irrigation. The treaty also imposes design restrictions on the construction of dams on the Indus and its tributaries. In the future, Pakistan will no longer be required to consider these concerns. In the past, Pakistan has raised objections over designs, but it will no longer be necessary to address these concerns in the future. Notable projects that have been objected to by Pakistan include Salal, Baglihar, Uri, Chutak, Nimoo Bazgo, Kishenganga, Pakal Dul, Miyar, Lower Kalnai, and Ratle.
Following the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, the government approved eight additional hydropower projects in Ladakh. These objections may no longer apply to the new projects. There are also operational restrictions on how reservoirs are to be filled and operated. With the treaty in abeyance, these restrictions are no longer applicable. Saxena stated that India can stop sharing flood data on the rivers, which could be detrimental to Pakistan during the monsoon season when rivers swell.
In addition, India will now have no restrictions on storage on Western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and can implement numerous flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley, Saxena explained. The mandatory tours of the Pakistani side to India, which are required under the treaty, may now be halted. At the time of independence, the boundary line between the two newly created independent countries—Pakistan and India—was drawn across the Indus Basin, leaving Pakistan as the lower riparian and India as the upper riparian. Two essential irrigation works, one at Madhopur on the Ravi River and the other at Ferozepur on the Sutlej River, on which the irrigation canal supplies in Punjab (Pakistan) had been completely dependent, fell within Indian territory.
A dispute thus arose between the two countries regarding the usage of irrigation water from existing facilities. Negotiations held under the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) culminated in the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960. According to the treaty, all the waters of the Eastern Rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi, with an average annual flow of around 33 Million Acre Feet (MAF)—are allocated to India for unrestricted use, while the waters of the Western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, with an average annual flow of around 135 MAF—are largely allocated to Pakistan. However, India is permitted to use the waters of the Western Rivers for domestic use, non-consumptive use, agricultural purposes, and hydroelectric power generation. The right to generate hydroelectricity from Western rivers is unrestricted, subject to the conditions for design and operation of the Treaty. India can also create storages up to 3.6 MAF on Western rivers, as stated in the pact.
